Lancet’s 186k estimate is not reliable: Difference between revisions

This is not the first time The Lancet has published controversial casualty figures. In 2006, it estimated that over 600,000 Iraqis had died in the war,<ref>{{Cite journal |last=Burnham |first=Gilbert |last2=Lafta |first2=Riyadh |last3=Doocy |first3=Shannon |last4=Roberts |first4=Les |date=2006-10-21 |title=Mortality after the 2003 invasion of Iraq: a cross-sectional cluster sample survey |url=https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(06)69491-9/abstract |journal=The Lancet |language=English |volume=368 |issue=9545 |pages=1421–1428 |doi=10.1016/S0140-6736(06)69491-9 |issn=0140-6736 |pmid=17055943 |ssrn=1455017}}</ref> a number that was later widely discredited.<ref name=":0">{{Cite journal |last=Roberts |first=Adam |date=2010-07-01 |title=Lives and Statistics: Are 90% of War Victims Civilians? |url=https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2010.494880 |journal=Survival |volume=52 |issue=3 |pages=115–136 |doi=10.1080/00396338.2010.494880 |issn=0039-6338}}</ref> The American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) found that the lead author, Dr. Gilbert Burnham, violated ethical standards by refusing to disclose key methodological details.<ref name=":0" /> Not only that, but he also did not account for immigration and increase the rising violence of the time, which has probably inflated the total count.<ref>{{Cite journal |last=Marker |first=David A. |date=2008 |title=Review: Methodological Review of "Mortality after the 2003 Invasion of Iraq: A Cross-Sectional Cluster Sample Survey" |url=https://academic.oup.com/poq/article-abstract/72/2/345/1920219 |journal=The Public Opinion Quarterly |publisher=Oxford University Press |volume=72 |issue=2 |page=362 |issn=0033-362X |jstor=25167629 |quote=Iraq has clearly experienced significant migration since the time of the invasion. The authors take account of migration from the March 2003 invasion through mid-2004, using the best population estimates at that time. However, as sectarian violence and death rates have increased from that time through mid-2006, the rate of external and internal migration has increased. It is likely that not accounting for this has produced an overestimate of the number of excess deaths.}}</ref> A more rigorous survey conducted by the Iraq Family Health Survey Study Group (IFHS) placed the number of violent deaths at approximately 151,000.<ref name=":0" /> Funnily enough, the department of error addressed the paper in question three years later without saying anything about the methodological errors resulting in the inflation of casualties.<ref>{{Cite journal |date=2009-03-07 |title=Department of Error |url=https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140673609604839 |journal=The Lancet |volume=373 |issue=9666 |pages=810 |doi=10.1016/S0140-6736(09)60483-9 |issn=0140-6736}}</ref>

* Dr. Peter Singer criticized the math behind it as “unreliable multiplied by unreliable”.<ref name=":1" />

* The blog Hodjasblog accused The Lancet of bias, stating that “they only trust the science that fits their politics”.<ref>{{Cite web |title=Three peer-reviewed studies in The Lancet about Gaza all have severe methodological flaws. They only “trust the science” that fits their politics. – Hodjanernes blog |url=https://hodjasblog.one/three-peer-reviewed-studies-in-the-lancet-about-gaza-all-have-severe-methodological-flaws-they-only-trust-the-science-that-fits-their-politics/ |access-date=2025-08-04 |language=en}}</ref>